Infection is main risk for most with radiation sickness

While officials in Japan and elsewhere are offering assurances that the health risks posed to the general public by three nuclear reactors are low, many are still worried.

Some are surely remembering images of the 1986 Chernobyl disaster. That disaster is thought to have caused more than 30 deaths from acute radiation sickness alone, as well as thousands of cancer deaths, and birth defects.

So far, the two events seem quite different.

At Chernobyl, explosions blew the reactor apart, which vapourized its radioactive fuel, sending a toxic cloud across the Ukraine and parts of Europe. In Japan, explosions have been contained within the reactors, and only small amounts of radioactive particles are said to have been released.

The radiation release from Chernobyl was about a million times the amount released from the partial core meltdown at Three Mile Island, which itself is considered a worse disaster than the troubles underway at Japan's Fukushima facility.

Acute radiation sickness

Nevertheless, at least three Fukushima workers have already come down with acute radiation sickness. Since it's unclear how much radioactive material they were exposed to, what kind of radiation, and for how long, their prognosis is uncertain.

Officials haven't revealed what symptoms the workers are experiencing, but they likely include nausea, fatigue, vomiting, and diarrhea. More severe radiation exposures result in fever, bloody vomit and stools, and later, hair loss, infections, and poor wound healing.

What makes ionizing radiation from radioactive material so dangerous is that it interferes with the cells' ability to divide and reproduce. The effects are usually seen first in the cells that divide rapidly. These include blood cells in bone marrow and intestinal cells, as well as reproductive and hair cells.

For most with radiation sickness, the biggest risk is infection.

Though severe radiation exposure is fatal within weeks about 50 per cent of the time, many can survive milder forms of radiation sickness.

If the Fukushima workers develop more serious symptoms in the next few weeks, they would likely be offered medications that increase white blood-cell production, which can help reduce the risk of infections.

But the risk of cancer will remain for the workers for many years down the road.

Cancer risk

For the rest of the Japanese public, there is still a risk of long-term effects of radiation exposure, particularly is officials are downplaying the severity of the situation, as some suspect they might be.

The Japanese government has ordered anyone living within 20 kilometres of the Fukushima nuclear power plant to evacuate the area as a precaution. They are also handing out iodine pills in hopes of preventing thyroid cancer.

The reason for the pills is that the thyroid gland tends to absorb iodine from wherever it can. By flooding the thyroid with ordinary iodine, it will inhibit its absorption of radioactive iodine from the atmosphere.

But Dr. David J. Brenner, director of the Center for Radiological Research at Columbia University, is not convinced that's an effective strategy. He tells The New York Times that the risk from inhaling radioactive iodine is low; almost 98 per cent of people's exposure comes from ingesting contaminated milk and other dairy products.

In fact, he believes that the epidemic of thyroid cancer around Chernobyl could have been prevented if the government had immediately stopped people from drinking milk.

Leukemia is also a risk, as many of those who survived Chernobyl eventually came down with the blood-based cancer.

Cancer is the biggest long-term risk. Usually when the body's cells reach their "sell-by date" they commit suicide. Cancer results when cells lose this ability,

The body has various processes for ensuring that cells do not become cancerous, and for replacing damaged tissue.

The damage caused by exposure to radiation can disrupt the body's ability to regenerate new cells, allowing old cells to "go rogue" and continue to divide and multiply in an uncontrolled fashion, allowing tumours to grow.

Radiation can also result in mutations to the body's genetic material, which may also be potentially passed down to offspring, leading to deformities in future generations.

These can include smaller head or brain size, severe learning difficulties, and stunted growth.

Tears after two days adrift at sea

A MAN who was rescued at sea 15km off Japan's northeast coast was found clinging to a piece of his home's shredded roof two days after the deadly tsunami tore through his home city and swept his wife away.

Adrift in the Pacific Ocean, Hiromitsu Shinkawa tried in vain to signal the many boats and helicopters that passed by his makeshift raft. But it was not until Sunday afternoon when, waving a hand-made red cloth flag, he drew the attention of a nearby Japanese navy destroyer. By that time, the 60-year-old had drifted 15km from his home city of Minamisoma, in Fukushima prefecture, which had been virtually obliterated by Friday's 9-magnitude earthquake and the tsunami that followed.

Sailors from the Japanese destroyer used a small rescue boat to pluck the man out of the water, describing him as conscious and in "good condition".

Officials from Japan's Defence Ministry said the sailors handed Mr Shinkawa a drink of water aboard the rescue boat, which he gulped down before immediately bursting into tears.

Mr Shinkawa's wife -- who was reportedly torn from the man's arms in the tidal wave -- was still among those missing yesterday. He explained to the rescuers that he and his wife returned to their home to gather their possessions after the quake struck. As the tsunami began to roar across the landscape towards then, Mr Shinkawa said they tried to run, but it was too late. "I ran away after learning that the tsunami was coming," he told the sailors, according to Jiji Press. "But I turned back to pick up something at home when I was washed away."

While he was able to scramble on to his roof, Mr Shinkawa's wife was swept away. She was yesterday still among the nearly 10,000 Minamisoma residents who were unaccounted for.

Mr Shinkawa was taken to hospital by helicopter from the Japanese destroyer.

Japanese military officials said he was lucky that mild weather and relatively calm seas enabled him to stay afloat for nearly two days, the Kyodo news agency reported.

The city is located 70km south of the hardest-hit city of Sendai, and 250km northeast of Tokyo.

apan quake risks severe near-term economic damage

A triple blow of earthquake, tsunami and one of Japan's worst nuclear accidents is set to damage the world's third largest economy, possibly more deeply and for longer than initially expected.

Power outages and possible tax rises are likely to hurt companies and households and could outweigh the mild economic aftershock from the 1995 Kobe earthquake, given that oil prices and the yen are stronger and Japan's debt pile is much bigger.

Rolling blackouts will start Monday, affecting businesses and households as the country grapples with its worst crisis since World War Two. More than 1 million people are without water or power and towns have been wiped off the map.

Already saddled with debt that is double the size of its $5 trillion economy and threatened by credit downgrades, the government is discussing a temporary tax rise to fund relief work.

Japan's economic growth is in a better profile than it was when the Kobe quake struck. But many say a noticeable hit to GDP, which was only just recovering from contraction at the end of 2010, is likely to be felt over the next several months.

"When we talk about natural disasters, we tend to see an initial sharp drop in production... then you tend to have a V-shaped rebound. But initially everyone underestimates the damage," said Michala Marcussen, head of global economics at Societe Generale.

"Power supply is a critical factor. If power production output is damaged in a sustainable fashion, that could have a durable impact on the economy."

Tokyo Electric Power Co (9501.T) said on Sunday it may have to conduct rolling blackouts in winter, in addition to summer.

"The earthquake will bring lots of things to a halt. We are going to see quite a dent on GDP, blackouts will lead to a sharp contraction of production," said Janwillem Acket, group chief economist at Julius Baer.

He estimated the damage would be felt for two quarters, but it was not likely to knock the economy back into recession.

"We know public finances are already weak, much weaker than they are during Kobe. Pressure for emergency tax hikes is there. But I don't think the economy will go back to recession."

GROWTH IMPACT

Following the 1995 Kobe earthquake, the economy shrank by 2 percent, followed by a V-shaped recovery. Back then, oil prices were hovering around $17-21 a barrel while the yen -- key to exporters -- was at around 100 per dollar when the quake hit.

Currently with oil prices at near 2-1/2 year high above $100 and the Japanese currency at a stronger 82 per dollar, the impact from these two factors alone will be more adverse.

Japan's gross domestic product shrank by an annualized 1.3 percent in Q4. A Reuters poll published before the quake showed it was likely to expand 0.5 percent in Q1, or roughly two percent on an annualized basis.

Supplies Run Short for Quake Survivors

Japan's quake-ravaged northern communities continued to be pinched by food and water shortages Monday, while even cities far from the damage experienced "aftershocks" as the effects from Friday's disaster rippled through the economy and markets.

Rescue workers struggled to bring supplies to thousands of residents of towns along the northeast coast, hardest hit by the 8.9-magnitude quake and tsunami on Friday. Survivors appeared on television, saying they didn't have power and were running out of food and water. People atop one building had written a huge Chinese character for "water" on the roof, so it could be seen by rescue helicopters.

The official death toll continued to climb, reaching around 1,800 by Monday afternoon. National broadcaster NHK reported that more than 450,000 people had moved to temporary shelters in the affected areas.

Miyoko Sugiyama, who lived a few blocks from the beach near the hard-hit city of Sendai, said she was happy to escape with her husband and 14-year-old dog. "There were 2,700 homes" in her neighborhood, she said. "Now there are only a few left."

Troubles continued to mount at the nuclear-power site in Fukushima Prefecture, where there was an explosion over the weekend. On Monday, an explosion occurred in the building housing a second reactor at the site, while the cooling system for a third reactor also failed, authorities said.

And in Tokyo, financial markets and commuters alike were pounded on the first working day after the quake.

Tokyo shares plunged, logging losses not seen since the first months of the global financial crisis. The Nikkei Stock Average closed at 9620.49, down 633.94 points or 6.2%—its sharpest single-day percentage loss since December 2008. The Topix index of all the Tokyo Stock Exchange First Section issues slid 68.55 points, or 7.5%, to 846.96, its heaviest loss since October 2008.

To prevent a cash crunch, the Bank of Japan injected a record 18 trillion yen (about $220 billion) into the short-term money markets and doubled the size of its asset-purchase program.

Confusion reigned at Tokyo Electric Power Company, which said it would conduct rolling outages during the day in order to conserve power, then reversed course at the last minute when it saw energy demand was lower than usual. But Tepco's plans caused Tokyo's train companies to drastically cut back service, leaving thousands of commuters without a way to get to work.

"I was really confused about both the power cuts and the train services," said Nobuyoshi Takashimaya, a 56 year old employee at an insurance firm in Tokyo. He said he had to walk one hour from home to reach his office because his train wasn't running.