The leadership of the Senate Democrats and the House Republicans are adamant that they don't want a shutdown of the federal government and will work mightily to prevent that from happening.
The Republican leadership, mindful that their party took the blame the last time the government shut down in 1995-96 and never recovered its political momentum, is particularly forceful.
"Let me be clear, a government shutdown is not an acceptable outcome," said House Republican leader Eric Cantor. Let's stipulate that the leadership is truly sincere about this.
The variable in this equation is the 87 Republican newcomers, many of them that the Tea Party backed, in the House. Some of them seem to want a shutdown to show their supporters that they really are tough on spending. Others, one suspects, are simply curious as to what will happen.
The answer is: Nothing good.
The national parks, the federal museums, the national monuments close down and go dark. Passport applications stack up untouched. New Social Security claims go unclaimed. Processing veterans' benefits and claims slows to a trickle. Communities with a large federal presence begin to struggle as furloughed workers stop spending.
The angry citizens can't complain to the federal government. It's closed. So they complain to their local member of Congress. And complain and complain.
Because Congress never passed a budget or its spending bills last year, the government has been operating under a series of temporary measures, called continuing resolutions, that allow it to keep spending at 2010 levels.
The most recent of those measures expires March 4. The House Republicans have already passed their own resolution, cutting spending for the remaining seven months of the year by $61 billion, a serious whack.
The Senate Democrats have said no way, and in any event President Barack Obama has said he would veto it. Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid proposed a simple 30-day extension of the current resolution while the two sides negotiate on a bill that would get them through to Sept. 30, the end of the fiscal year.
Republican House Speaker John Boehner countered with a two-week extension but one with $4 billion in cuts, basically the $61 billion prorated. It's possible that Boehner could be mollified with some cuts, just not the magnitude of those being demanded. As Politico put it, "The bill should at least nick bureaucratic flesh." That, in turn, might not mollify the Republican newcomers.
As the lawmakers begin straggling back to Congress after their Presidents Day recess, they face the real possibility of blundering into a government shutdown that no responsible lawmakers wanted and their leaders strove mightily to avoid.
The Republican leadership, mindful that their party took the blame the last time the government shut down in 1995-96 and never recovered its political momentum, is particularly forceful.
"Let me be clear, a government shutdown is not an acceptable outcome," said House Republican leader Eric Cantor. Let's stipulate that the leadership is truly sincere about this.
The variable in this equation is the 87 Republican newcomers, many of them that the Tea Party backed, in the House. Some of them seem to want a shutdown to show their supporters that they really are tough on spending. Others, one suspects, are simply curious as to what will happen.
The answer is: Nothing good.
The national parks, the federal museums, the national monuments close down and go dark. Passport applications stack up untouched. New Social Security claims go unclaimed. Processing veterans' benefits and claims slows to a trickle. Communities with a large federal presence begin to struggle as furloughed workers stop spending.
The angry citizens can't complain to the federal government. It's closed. So they complain to their local member of Congress. And complain and complain.
Because Congress never passed a budget or its spending bills last year, the government has been operating under a series of temporary measures, called continuing resolutions, that allow it to keep spending at 2010 levels.
The most recent of those measures expires March 4. The House Republicans have already passed their own resolution, cutting spending for the remaining seven months of the year by $61 billion, a serious whack.
The Senate Democrats have said no way, and in any event President Barack Obama has said he would veto it. Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid proposed a simple 30-day extension of the current resolution while the two sides negotiate on a bill that would get them through to Sept. 30, the end of the fiscal year.
Republican House Speaker John Boehner countered with a two-week extension but one with $4 billion in cuts, basically the $61 billion prorated. It's possible that Boehner could be mollified with some cuts, just not the magnitude of those being demanded. As Politico put it, "The bill should at least nick bureaucratic flesh." That, in turn, might not mollify the Republican newcomers.
As the lawmakers begin straggling back to Congress after their Presidents Day recess, they face the real possibility of blundering into a government shutdown that no responsible lawmakers wanted and their leaders strove mightily to avoid.